In a little over a week, all 32 NHL teams will gather in Nashville for the 2023 Entry Draft. It will mark the 2nd time the draft has taken place in the Nashville Predators’ backyard, the first one coming back in 2003.
That 2003 draft was a memorable one for the Preds. They drafted Shea Weber, Ryan Suter, and Kevin Klein as part of their 13-man draft class, by far one of their most successful in team history.
Coincidentally, the Predators have the same number of picks this year (13) as they did that year. And incoming general manager Barry Trotz will hope to have just as much success this year as soon-to-be-former general manager David Poile did back in 2003.
In fact, if Barry Trotz is to make his mark as GM in Nashville, he will want to be just as successful at drafting NHL players as David Poile was for 25 years.
Nashville’s draft success over 25 years
A close look at Nashville’s draft history over the last 25 years shows they are one of the best organizations in the league at drafting NHL players.
Using Hockey Reference’s draft tool, I was able to compile every draft pick in the NHL since 1998 and then analyze these picks with the player’s eventual careers. Looking only at two stats, games played and points, a clear pattern emerges with regards to Nashville.
Note about the data: I removed the 2020, 2021, and 2022 draft classes because no players drafted in the last three years have accumulated the minimum 100 games and 100 points threshold. This also meant removing the Seattle Kraken, so the field of NHL teams totals 31. I also removed goalies from the data.
The Nashville Predators have drafted 31 players between 1998 and 2019 who have accrued at least 100 games played and put up at least 100 points. Only one team (Buffalo) has more.
But that’s not all.
The Preds also have seven players during that span who have accrued at least 500 games played and at least 500 points. That also ranks second in the league, behind Edmonton and Ottawa, who each have eight.
(For those who are curious: David Legwand, Martin Erat, Scott Hartnell, Shea Weber, Ryan Suter, Patric Hornqvist, and Roman Josi)
What does this mean exactly?
Well, if the goal of the NHL Draft is to find players who can play at the NHL level, or more to the point, players that can play successfully at the NHL level, Nashville is one of the best in the league.
Credit to David Poile and the scouts
For all the grief David Poile has received about his roster management (especially recently), he should get a lot of credit for his draft success. Granted, he’s still not been able to find that franchise-altering center (which is something that eludes most NHL franchises, if we are being honest), but Poile’s consistency at finding NHL caliber players is to be applauded. To say nothing of his ability to draft and develop goaltenders.
But credit must go to the scouting team as well.
Head scout Tom Nolan has built a network of well connected, hockey-smart scouts that span the globe. They’ve been bringing in talent at all levels of the draft, hitting on players that no one else was able to find, for decades now. Juuso Parssinen is the most recent example, but don’t forget about players like Viktor Arvidsson and Patric Hornqvist, who found success despite being late round draft picks as well.
Entering this year’s draft, Nolan still heads the scouting department for Nashville. He has a different boss at the head of the table, but one that he’s worked with before.
Barry Trotz shouldn’t stray too far from proven strategy
Much was made of Barry Trotz’s draft strategy quote a few weeks ago. If you don’t recall, here’s a reminder:
As of today, that tweet has over 1.3 million views. It’s fair to say the game plan on Barry Trotz’s draft strategy is fairly well known heading into next week; he’s planning to “take some high end swings on some guys” and wants his scouts to find guys that “get people out of their seats.”
But Trotz should be careful not to stray too far from what’s been proven a good draft strategy so far.
Sure, the Nashville Predators have not turned their draft success into Stanley Cup success yet. But if you view the NHL Draft as merely one cog in the machine of a truly successful NHL franchise (the others being roster management and coaching), Trotz shouldn’t tinker too much with what’s been working.
Clearly the scouting department in Nashville is pretty smart. They’ve found players that can play at the NHL level more frequently than other teams. They’ve proven the ability to discover players that no one else notices.
If it ain’t broke…
Having said that, the Predators have still not drafted specific players that they truly need. They’ve never drafted a 40-goal scorer. They’ve never drafted a game-changing, play-making center that other teams have to game plan for. They’ve never drafted a legitimate Hart Trophy candidate.
Perhaps Trotz and his scouts have a strategy for finding one of those this year. They have 13 picks to choose from, their most since 2003, and they’d do well to find even one forward that can reach those milestones I mentioned.
However, Trotz shouldn’t upset the apple cart too much. The Nashville Predators have proven they are one of the most successful drafting teams in the NHL. That’s something to build on, not tear down and start over.
