The trade deadline is almost upon us and all eyes are focused on Ottawa and Columbus. While Artemi Panarin is certainly an elite playmaker who would do wonders for the Predators, I’m not sold on the Blue Jackets moving him.
So, when we eliminate Panarin, who’s left? For my money, the two best players on the market are Ottawa Senators. No offense to Ryan Dzingel, who’s proving to be a steady 20 goal scorer, but I believe him to be a product of his center and co-subject of this article, Matt Duchene.
Matt Duchene and Mark Stone are the prime targets on the market and there are more than a few rumors to prove it. Teams like Winnipeg, Vegas, Nashville, and even Calgary are in on the pair. The contenders are preparing to make their run, but not every team will be able to get their hands on a superstar. So, what if the Predators miss out?
Is this Predators roster, when healthy, good enough to compete for a Stanley Cup? That’s a tough question to answer. One of my favorite sayings about the grueling tournament is “the best team in the NHL rarely wins it all.” I’m not sure if the Predators are good enough for a deep run this season, but does that matter? Pekka Rinne or Juuse Saros could capture lightning in a bottle for two months and the rest could be history. So, while we can’t predict the future, there is something to be said for hedging your bets. With all of the chaos in the NHL, adding either Stone or Duchene would greatly increase their chances of winning it all.
The price will be excruciatingly high for each player, so let’s throw out the idea that the Predators could get both without moving Josi, Subban, or a member of JoFA back.
I’ll speculate what a fair deal looks like at the end of the article, so let’s get on with it. All stats are at five on five unless explictly stated otherwise.
Better Together
Duchene and Stone have spent about 188 minutes together at five on five this season. With the duo on the ice, the Senators own a 54.57% Corsi, 53.55% shot share, 54.55% goal share, and 54.32 high danger chance share. They start in the offensive zone 52.71% of the time, but they also rarely faced anything but top competition.
Their PDO is an extremely average 100.4, but their on-ice on ice shooting percentage is 10.62% while their save percentage is a horrific 89.80. These things are bound to happen though. Stone is an awesome passer whose hockey iq is off the charts while Duchene is a speedy forward with a deadly shot. That combination going to inflate your on-ice shooting percentage, while having the fifth worse on-ice save percentage at five on five will also lower the old PDO. If they played with Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros so far, their PDO’s would be a whopping 103.2!
When partnered, Duchene and Stone made a great duo, but they won’t have each other to lean on if they come to Nashville. So, what are their individual impacts?
Insane In The Duchene
I didn’t know which player to pick first, so naturally I flipped a coin. If you’re a believer in fate, just know that it really wanted Duchene. The coin came up tails three times out of three chances, so let’s not fight fate.
Duchene is having one heck of a season as he has 19 goals and 36 points in 49 games at five on five. 32 of those points are primary and come from how often Ottawa relies on him to produce scoring chances.
Despite those great numbers, his on-ice stats are severely lacking. Duchene currently has a 46.52% Corsi but has a much more favorable 49.33% shot share. He currently maintains a 50% goal share, though that likely won’t hold at his current rate considering he has a 47.84% scoring chance share and 49.30% high danger chance share. All those numbers are still above average compared to the rest of his teammates, but you hope to see more from someone who will likely ask for 9.5 million dollars per year.
It also doesn’t help that Duchene sees the easier competition compared to Stone while also starting in the offensive zone 53.17% of the time. Though, it’s not like Duchene wastes the shelter he’s given, his individual stats speak for themselves.
He’s fourth on the club with 98 shots, sixth with 159 shot attempts, third with 110 scoring chances and 52 high danger chances. These offensive numbers are great, but let’s remember that he’s on a garbage Senators team. If Duchene or Stone isn’t scoring, then it’s more likely than not that no one is.
What you see above from Duchene is exactly what you’ll get. He’s a dynamic forward who uses his speed to attack the slot, but he’s not great in his own zone. Sure, we could blame the defense and the rest of the Senators, but the fact is their defense is better without Duchene. While Duchene’ threat is +13, the Senators sans Duchene is +7. Objectively not great, but relatively better than Duchene for sure.
The last thing I wanted to highlight was the luck factor. I already discussed Duchene and Stone’s PDO together, but it gets a bit weirder when they’re apart. Duchene is currently shooting at 19.39%, about 10% more than league average and about 7% more than career average.
On top of that, Corsica’s expected goals equation has Duchene with 11.09 expected goals, about eight fewer than Duchene’s current totals at five on five. That’s bound to happen though, Duchene’s incredible shooting talent has inorganically bumped up his numbers quite a bit, not mention that he takes most of his shots from high percentage areas of the ice. While Emmanuel Perry’s equation is fantastically accurate, some high-end shooters routinely beat the numbers.
Now that we have an idea of how Duchene is performing, let’s see how he stacks up against Stone.
Insert Stone Pun Here
I’m just going to come out and say it, Mark Stone is a top 10 player in the NHL at the moment and is the best two way winger since prime Marian Hossa. The best part is that I might be underselling him, don’t believe me? Take a look below.
Sure, a -1 threat might not seem like that much, but let’s remember that Stone does this as a winger! I mean, there’s a over a 10% difference depending if Stone is on the ice or not.
If you cling to the old ways, then just know that Stone is tied for league lead in takeaways with Connor McDavid. On top of that, he’s only had 38 giveaways which is truly impressive when you see how often he’s forced to carry the puck in high transition areas.
Besides his immense defensive contributions, Stone is having yet another impressive offensive season. He currently has 17 goals and 34 points in 58 games, with 30 of those being primary.
While Stone’s point totals aren’t as close to Duchene’s, his offensive impact is even greater. I think the main reason Stone isn’t scoring as much is his defensive responsibilities and lackluster linemates. Hopefully, both of those might revert closer to the norm if he were to come to Nashville.
When we account for the power play, both Stone and Duchene become point per game players, but why bother? It’s not like either could score in Nashville’s broken system. I think both would help, taking Bonino off would be a great contribution already, but I’m not sure either would have a big enough impact.
That tangent aside, the Senators are not the same bottom dweller when Stone is on the ice. He currently has a 52.12% Corsi, 51.74% shot share, 57.29% goal share, and a 57.14% high danger chance share. Stone not only earns these numbers against top competition each and every night, but he gets little help from his coach. Certified Bond villain Guy Bouchard starts Stone in the offensive zone 48.83% of the time.
Luck doesn’t come into play too much with Stone. He has 102.1 PDO, but that’s about right considering his ability. The only concern I’d have is his individual shooting percentage which currently resides at a staggering 18.48%, but that’s still a whole percent less than Duchene’s.
So, with this in mind, who’s the best bet?
Decisions
Let’s start with a harsh truth. None of the free agents are likely to re-sign in Nashville. Stone is likely a 10 million dollar player and Duchene has been rumored to at least nine million dollars per year. Unless the Predators decide to send back one of the big defensemen or someone like Bonino or Smith, this deal will almost certainly be a rental.
That’s not all bad though. Sometimes a rental is exactly what a team could need. Sometimes a rental could mean the price comes down a little, and every bit of savings would help a Cup contending team.
I know it’s a hard decision, but Mark Stone seems like the better player and exactly what the Predators need. He’s a right winger and could give the Predators some flexibility to try new things. Assuming no roster players are lost in the trade (a big if), a top six of Fiala-Johansen-Arvidsson and Forsberg-Turris-Stone would mean that each line has an elite passer and an elite scorer.
Trading for Duchene would certainly be one hell of a consolation prize if Stone is traded to someone else, but where would he fit? Would you relegate Turris to the third line or would Duchene move to the wing? He’s a lefty and I’m not sure he’s ever played on his off wing, but I’d be lying if I said the thought of a sharp shooter alongside Fiala didn’t excite me.
Plus, Peter Laviolette likes to give his second line cushy shelter while throwing his third and fourth line to the wolves. Using Turris or Duchene in a defensive role would be irresponsible and honestly, kind of stupid. It’s the coaches’ job to put his players in the best position to succeed.
All in all, Stone’s on-ice stats, usage, quality of competition, and the zone stats you see below, even if the sample size is less than perfect, indicate that he’s the better player.
What’s A Predator To Do?
If Stone is the player we’re after, how do the Predators get him? What’s the price for a player who’s top 10 in the NHL?
Players like this rarely come onto the trade market, so a big return in expected. If I’m David Poile and I think this will be a rental, I’ll start for Stone with Eeli Tolvanen, a 2019 first round pick, a 2020 second round pick, and Craig Smith or Nick Bonino, either of those two are fine.
This might scare off a number of people, but this will likely be the price. Just think about it, the Jets could easily throw up a similar offer and would barely feel it, same with Flames. If the Predators want to make it past the third round, they’ll need to make sure either Stone or Duchene is on their roster or somewhere in the East.
People seem to think the Winnipeg Jets are into Stone, but I’m not necessarily sure that makes sense. The Jets have one of the best winger corps in the league and Stone would just displace someone else who deserves big minutes. I just kind of get the feeling that these rumors stem from Stone being a Winnipeg native. In all likelihood, the Jets are after Duchene so that he can fill that second line role and inject some speed in the top six.
Now, there is a wildcard in all this. Pierre Dorion is not that great at trading. I mean, just look at his return for the best defenseman in the NHL, Erik Karlsson. He only received a first round pick, second round pick, and a third line forward and defenseman. So maybe the Predators could sneak away with a Selke candidate for only a first round pick and Tolvanen.
As a neutral observer and lover of all things chaotic, what I really want to see is Duchene go to the Jets while Stone comes to Nashville. That’d be an insane second-round series, although I’d be a bit worried that either team would be too beat up to face down whatever juggernaut comes out of the Pacific.
You really can’t go wrong with either Duchene or Stone, but I think Stone makes the most sense considering the Predators’ needs.
Big thanks to naturalstattrick.com, CJ Turtoro, Corey Sznajder, Micah Blake McCurdy, Bill Comeau, and the now dead Corsica.hockey for their wonderful data and visuals.
