“We have one of the greatest defensemen in the National Hockey League right now in Roman Josi. I don’t like sometimes when Roman takes some big hits. Luke [Schenn] will make sure that those big hits won’t be coming too often.”
Those are the words of Nashville Predators’ general manager Barry Trotz from his July 2nd remarks on the team’s free agent signings. After a preamble devoted to the team’s shift in culture, indicating an emphasis on getting the right character guys in the locker room, Trotz spoke very highly of new center Ryan O’Reilly, new winger Gustav Nyquist, and new defenseman Luke Schenn.
Almost immediately, fans and media lauded the O’Reilly signing. Even at 32 years old, O’Reilly adequately fills a role the Predators need right now: a veteran center with a reliable two-way game, a guy who can make an impact at both ends of the ice. And his $4.5 million cap hit, made slightly worse by a four year term, made the buyout of Matt Duchene a little easier to swallow.
Similarly, most in this market praised the Gustav Nyquist signing, though it’s less clear how effective he will be in a top six role. His speed isn’t what it was as a young Red Wings forward, but his ability to help bring along young forwards like Cody Glass, Luke Evangelista, and Philip Tomasino will probably make the signing worth it in the long run.
But what about Luke Schenn? His three-year, $8.25 million contract was almost immediately a head scratcher.
Luke Schenn expected to pair with Roman Josi
Based on Trotz’s comments in July, the plan was to pair Luke Schenn with Roman Josi. And Andrew Brunette seems fine with that, because in training camp and preseason action, Schenn and Josi have been paired together consistently.
But does that pairing make sense?
Looking at the career trajectory of Luke Schenn compared with the recent history of Roman Josi’s defensive partners, it doesn’t seem to.
Consider that over the last five years, Roman Josi’s defensive partners, in an effort to keep up with Josi’s 25 minutes per night average, have averaged over 22 minutes of ice time. That’s includes penalty kill and power play time, all strengths.
But over the last five years, Luke Schenn has averaged just under 15 minutes per night while playing for Anaheim, Vancouver, Tampa, and Toronto.
Here’s a side by side comparison to give you an idea. The real takeaway is the final line showing the average time on ice over the last five years.
Schenn isn’t expected to be used on the power play, but he is expected to be a staple of the penalty kill. So while he may not get close to the 23 to 24 minutes that Ryan Ellis played with Josi, he is still projected to get north of 20 minutes, like McDonagh did last season.
Are the Predators really expecting Luke Schenn to play four or five minutes more than he did last year? That’s a massive jump in ice time and it seems a tall task for someone his age.
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Asking a 33-year-old to add that much ice time from one year to the next is asking too much. It’s going to result in a decrease in effectiveness and an increase in the risk for injury.
Speaking of injury, then there’s the issue of “protecting Roman Josi.”
Can Luke Schenn really protect Roman Josi?
The idea of protecting Roman Josi is a welcomed strategy. Nashville’s best defenseman suffered yet another concussion last year and I’ve lost count of how many he’s had at this point (at least four confirmed, but there have been others).
With over $70 million invested in Josi in this current contract, the Predators can ill afford a slew of injuries that keep him out of the lineup.
So the signing of Schenn to “prevent” any extra hits makes sense… but does it?
Most legal hits that players absorb occur when they have the puck in the offensive or neutral zones. After all, a “hit” only occurs when one player makes contact with another in an attempt to win back the puck. Anything else is a penalty (or at least should be).
Without doing a comprehensive dive into all of the hits absorbed by Roman Josi over the years, it’s likely most have been in the course of advancing the puck up the ice or while working in the offensive zone. It seems unlikely that Luke Schenn will be there to prevent those hits from coming, as we’d expect him to be the stopgap on the back end preventing counter attacks.
(Side note: though this has not been confirmed, the likely cause of his most recent concussion was this inadvertent hit to the head by teammate Cole Smith. Obviously Luke Schenn isn’t going to prevent these from occurring either.)
Then there are “illegal” hits he’s suffered over the years, of which there have been plenty. Josi has been targeted more than once by opponents (this one by Anton Blidh from 6 years ago comes to mind) and several of his concussions have followed.
But can Luke Schenn prevent these either? These happen in the course of intense action on the ice. Schenn’s intervention would only be retribution, not prevention.
Maybe players would be less likely to target him if they know a response is coming? But this deterrent theory of on-ice enforcement has been thoroughly disproven over the years (if anything, it causes more injuries to star players).
Schenn’s presence likely won’t cause more hits to Roman Josi, but there’s no reason to believe it will cause less hits either.
So was the Luke Schenn signing a mistake?
In short, no.
Schenn brings a lot more than just his skills on the ice. I believe Barry Trotz when he says Schenn, O’Reilly, and Nyquist are a part of the culture change this team has needed. Trotz spent many months watching the team off the ice while David Poile was still in the building. It’s clear there were personnel problems he knew needed resolving.
Schenn is a big part of that.
I do think Schenn will be a net positive to this team over the course of his contract. Will it be because he “protected Roman Josi”? Not likely. Will it because he transformed overnight into a 20+ minute shut down defenseman? Not likely either.
But Schenn’s physical presence and veteran leadership will add a lot to that locker room.
Should he have paid $8 million for a culture guy? Probably not.
But it wouldn’t be the first time a general manager did that. And considering this franchise gave millions of dollars to guys who were adversely affecting the locker room culture, Trotz has already moved the team in the right direction.
— Featured image via Danny Murphy/Icon Sportswire —
