The All-Star Break has arrived for the Nashville Predators and the roller coaster that is the 2023-24 season has hit a significant downhill. The Predators have fallen out of a wild card spot after losing 3 in a row and 5 out of 6 including a crushing loss to the Kings that could have pushed them back into a playoff spot. However, in the 10 games prior to this skid the Predators had gone 6-3-1 which just highlights the peaks and valleys of results thus far. If we’re all being honest, this is what was expected for a team in transition with a new coach and general manager.
With the trade deadline a mere month away though, it muddies the waters for GM Barry Trotz. Do you reward a team staying in contention by adding firepower to make a run at the playoffs? Or do you hold to the longer plan and continue building assets? While those questions have lingered for a couple years now, this season feels different as it is the beginning of a new era compared to the previous holding on to former glory. It is always important and relevant to make the playoffs but it is not the absolute necessity of seasons past. However, decisions still must be made so let’s take a look at those decisions and how they could shape the Nashville Predators roster down the stretch.
The most relevant question, as teased earlier, is whether Barry Trotz wants to make a push for the playoffs. In his recent radio hits on 102.5 FM in Nashville, Trotz has not shied away from the potential of adding a player if the situation warrants. The conventional wisdom is that the players will let the GM know with their play on the ice if adding to the roster is the right thing to do. While the recent results would not support adding, if the Predators go on another run winning 7 out of 8 like they did in mid-December then Barry Trotz’s mind could change quickly.
So Barry Trotz decides to go for the playoffs, then what?
It is easy to forget sometimes that the Predators are still a mostly veteran team, especially at the top of the lineup. It would not be a shock or a reach for Barry Trotz to decide that a playoff berth is worth it and make moves accordingly. The most glaring weakness in the Predators lineup is goal scoring from the middle 6 forward lines. After the top line of Forsberg, O’Reilly and Nyquist there are only two players with double digit goals and one of them is a defenseman. To that end, there are a few veteran forwards that could fill a 2nd or 3rd line scoring role without breaking the bank in cost. The first one that comes to mind is Vladimir Tarasenko. He’s a pure goal scorer so you might have to insulate his minutes a bit but a culture change from Ottawa with a prospect of playoff games could spark his fire a bit. Given a bit of an underwhelming first half of the season the Predators might be able to get him for two of the eight picks Nashville has between rounds 2, 3 and 4 in the upcoming NHL draft. There are a couple other options the Predators could pursue at a lower cost like Duclair or Hoffman from the Sharks but at that point you’re hoping to catch a bit of lightning in a bottle of past production. If Barry Trotz really wants to go big he could push for the Flyers’ Travis Konecny but the high likely cost probably isn’t worth it just to try and sneak into a wild card spot. In this scenario Trotz would moves Tyson Barrie to collect whatever assets he can but the focus would be on adding some veteran scoring punch to the middle six forwards.
The next big question becomes if Barry Trotz is willing to move goalie prospect Yaroslav Askarov to acquire a top end forward talent. Going back to the 2023 NHL Draft Trotz entertained offers for Askarov in hopes of getting into the top 5 so it’s not out of the question. However as this season has progressed Askarov has been excellent in Milwaukee and has cemented his place among some of the top prospects not yet in the NHL full time. For a team in the midst of a reset, acquiring a goalie who could be a stalwart in net for the next ten years would have significant value. While there do not appear to be proven top end players out on the trade market there are a few younger players potentially in need of a change of scenery, like Morgan Frost in Philadelphia or Josh Norris in Ottawa, that could attract Nashville’s attention. The necessary subsequent activity for the Predators would be signing Juuse Saros to a sizable and lengthy contract extension.
So Barry Trotz decides to sell, how far does he go?
So this is where things get really interesting. The Predators have a lot of upcoming free agents who could generate interest among contending teams. While none are likely to get Mattias Ekholm or Tanner Jeannot level returns there is still an opportunity to continue collecting assets in the forms of prospects or draft picks.
Among the forwards Michael McCarron, Denis Gurianov and Mark Jankowski could all be useful depth players for a playoff bound team for the cost of a mid round pick or mid-tier prospect. The big question marks are Tommy Novak and Yakov Trenin. Both are productive NHL level players who could fill an immediate nightly role. Novak is especially interesting as the rental center market is pretty thin so a team like the Rangers might be willing to pay a significant asset price to get Novak’s production at a salary that is easy to fit under the cap. Trenin would be intriguing for teams who need to shore up their forward corps with players built for the ramped up physicality of playoff hockey. Plus, with special teams play at a premium Trenin’s abilities as a penalty killer would be of value. It would not be surprising to see the likes of Toronto, Los Angeles, Edmonton or Carolina come calling with offers of picks in the top two rounds.
On the defensive side the obvious move is still Tyson Barrie but that has proven difficult thus far given his cap hit and downward trend in production. A trade probably still gets done but the return will likely be underwhelming. The more interesting decision continues to revolve around Alexandre Carrier and Dante Fabbro. Both players have had their ups and downs in Nashville but they remain one of the most desired assets at the trade deadline, and that is right handed defensemen who can move the puck. Both are also on reasonably low cap hits which shouldn’t be a hindrance to playoff teams closer to the cap. If Barry Trotz decides to move one of them (or both?) then he could request a first round pick or high prospect each.
Now the really big question, what about Juuse Saros?
The opinions on Barry Trotz trading Saros have varied wildly going back to the offseason. Trotz has publicly stated his goal is to re-sign Saros this summer with one year left on his contract. There is risk as Saros could easily ask for the same deal Connor Hellebuyck signed this past offseason (7 yrs, $8.5M). That type of deal would take Saros into his mid-30’s which isn’t over the hill for a goalie but it is a lot to commit to a goalie of that age for a team in transition. As the 2023-24 season has entered its second half, the re-signing stance seems to have softened as recently Trotz mentioned he wouldn’t put Saros’ name out there unless the conversation started with a young impact player. That is… putting his name out there. You have to love GM speak being used at a high level. For teams trying to acquire Juuse Saros, now is very relevant timing because a contending team would get two playoff runs before he becomes a free agent. So what kind of young impact player could pique Nashville’s interest? When the Kings were pursuing Saros in the offseason, Quinton Byfield’s name was in the conversation. If you were to look at other potential teams like the Devils or Hurricanes, their young offensive contributors like Dawson Mercer or Martin Necas, respectively, come to mind. In short, it would take a massive trade offer for Barry Trotz to consider moving on from a perennial Vezina trophy candidate but the smoke around that possibility continues to build.
What Do I Think the Predators Should Do?
So glad you asked. For where the Predators are right now, any pending UFA should be on the table. If I’m putting myself in Barry Trotz’s shoes I’m focused on offers for Carrier, Novak and Trenin. I appreciate all three players and what they contribute in Nashville but based on their age, free agent status and the team trajectory you have to manage assets that have value. If teams are willing to pony up relevant prospect or pick value for proven NHL players still in their 20’s then I would seriously consider moving all three. For example if moving Yakov Trenin in a trade to the Kings that nets either Alex Turcotte or Arthur Kaliyev then I would consider that worthwhile. After that point, any value that can be acquired for Tyson Barrie, Denis Gurianov, Michael McCarron (though he has big “vibes guy” value) or Mark Jankowski is just an added benefit. The Predators have plenty of cap space to absorb a bad contract or two as well which only increases the returns. The net result from a roster standpoint is the opportunity to get more minutes at the NHL level for Spencer Stastney and Egor Afanasyev plus potentially a first look for Joakim Kemell, Zach L’Heureux, etc which again is about playing the long game and building a Stanley Cup contending team.
On Saros, I thought he should have been moved in the 2023 offseason and if a team is willing to offer a top offensive prospect and a high pick as part of a trade package then I think Barry Trotz should pull the trigger. In my mind, the risk of signing Saros to a huge (though well-earned) extension is too great when the rest of the roster is transitioning younger. Also, an acquiring team gets two playoff runs out of Saros before they have to make a contract decision so his value will never be higher. Plus, there is a good chance another veteran goalie comes back in the trade so potentially Askarov could stay as the starter in Milwaukee for the Admirals’ playoff push if the Predators want him to get more seasoning in pressure moments.
Overall, the 2024 trade deadline is a significant opportunity for Barry Trotz and the Nashville Predators to continue their retool journey if they’re willing to make some hard decisions. They have the right kinds of assets and the salaries that contending teams are willing to pay relevant asking prices to acquire. If Barry Trotz plays this correctly, he could set himself and the Predators up with a unique combination of talent and future assets that makes anything possible.
Roster and contract information courtesy of Cap Friendly
