We knew the Barry Trotz era would bring significant changes, along with perhaps some “out of the box thinking,” to the Nashville Predators’ front office following 24 years under David Poile.
But the latest news, that the team is buying out Matt Duchene’s contract, seems a little too “out of the box” for me.
Not only does this move run counter to the team’s perceived short-term plans, it’s a move that may end up hurting the team in the long-term. Even for a franchise looking to get out from under bad contracts, this move is perplexing.
Analyzing the Matt Duchene buyout
First, a quick recap of the last few months. After naming Barry Trotz as David Poile’s successor, the team traded off big contracts of veterans like Mattias Ekholm, Nino Niederreiter, and Mikael Granlund. Then they fired John Hynes, named Andrew Brunette the new coach, and traded Ryan Johansen in what was a de facto “buy out” for the team.
All the while, the team has maintained this is not a rebuild, but a process of replacing the core that has grown old and ineffective. While he’s not come out and said it, Trotz does not seem interested in tanking for a high draft pick as a way to “reset” or whatever he’s calling it. He still wants to win now, which is presumably why he changed head coaches.
But the buyout of Matt Duchene doesn’t make much sense.
First, this move makes little financial sense for Nashville in both the short term and long term. As I explain in the tweet below, the team saves only $4.6 million, which is spread out over six years, while still dealing with over $19 million of Duchene’s cap hit on the books over that time.
Seeing as how the salary cap will go up more than $4 million over the next six years, they could have just kept Duchene and used that money to build around him. Unless the financial issues with the team are much deeper than we think (which I suppose is possible), they don’t strike me as a team just trying to find cash.
Saving $4.6 million in one year? That’s significant. Saving it over six years? Hardly worth the time it took to draw up the buyout paperwork.
Buyouts are often used by teams looking to release themselves from the financial burden of contracts when the player is no longer worth the amount on the paycheck. It was why the Predators bought out Kyle Turris near three years ago. It’s also the reason why Ryan Johansen was traded to Colorado, which was the next best thing to a buyout for his situation (it’s been widely reported that a buyout was on the table as an option).
But the money situation in Duchene’s case, especially as it relates to his value as compared to his production, is not anything like the Turris or Johansen cases.
Over the course of Duchene’s four years in Nashville, he put up 197 points in 249 games, good for .79 points per game. That’s just above his career average, and higher than his .73 points per game during his nine years in Colorado.
Also, Duchene’s 197 points ranks third on the Preds in that span, behind Filip Forsberg (206) and Roman Josi (253), ahead of Mikael Granlund (157) and Ryan Johansen (149). Most of that is because of Duchene’s sensational 2021-22, where his 86 points was the most by any forward in franchise history.
Heading into what would have been Duchene’s fifth season in Nashville, he would have been the team’s third best offensive threat, behind Forsberg and Josi, carrying the team’s third highest salary ($8 million), also behind Forsberg ($8.5 million) and Josi ($9 million).
In other words, Duchene’s value to the team was right in line with his production. His output was comparable to what the team was paying him for.
Was he as consistent as Forsberg and Josi, year to year? No. His first year was largely a failure and this past season was a disappointing follow-up to 2021-22, but his numbers in aggregate are quite good. (Also, his advanced numbers/expected goals metrics have always been high on the team).
Given the current situation, Duchene’s buyout is confusing
Buyouts don’t happen in a vacuum. There’s always a larger context to consider.
In this case, the Nashville Predators are “changing the guard” so to speak. Jettisoning the core that’s been around for the last few years, replacing them with younger players.
And in that context, the trades of Mattias Ekholm, Mikael Granlund, and Ryan Johansen make sense. Three players with large cap hits that could be moved for future pieces to build around (or, in Johansen’s case, clear up money to spend on young players).
But every move you make creates a new scenario on the table. By trading those players, you have a new team by default. And especially with the Johansen trade, you’ve already cleared up plenty of cap room to make moves.
The Duchene buyout seems like one move too many. Now you are moving beyond “reset” and heading into “rebuild.” You are replacing not just the core of your team, but the whole team itself.
Prior to the Duchene buyout, the team had $19 million in cap space for the 2023-24 season. That’s plenty of money to make significant changes at multiple positions. Why do they need the extra $5 million from buying out Duchene? To go get even more depth? It doesn’t make sense.
The team could be gearing up to make a major move, which I mention in the tweet below. But until we see something like an Auston Matthews trade happen, I refuse to believe it’s even possible.
Also consider this: as long as the team has a healthy Juuse Saros, they will not be a candidate for a tank year. He’s too good of a goaltender to allow the team to sink in the bottom three teams in the league.
Trading Ryan Johansen, buying out Matt Duchene, and then trading Juuse Saros? That would make more sense and would indicate clear rebuild intentions. But trading Johansen and buying out Duchene without a corresponding Saros move doesn’t add up to a clear direction for the team.
Duchene’s locker room impact and beyond
The final point I’ll make here is what this buyout means for the culture of the team moving forward.
Matt Duchene was not only a significant leader in the locker room, he was a mentor to many young players. Luke Evangelista, Cody Glass, and Tommy Novak all mentioned Duchene numerous times last year as a guy that helped them find their game in the NHL. His work to help young players make their mark didn’t go unnoticed, nor did his ability to score goals and make precision passes.
Duchene’s skill will not be the only thing missing in the Preds’ locker room.
And let’s not forget that Matt Duchene very publicly declared Nashville as a destination for him. Duchene has been wanting to live and play since at least 2016 and when he finally arrived after signing a seven year deal, it was clear he wanted to finish his career in Nashville.
This goes beyond “bad optics.” It’s a pretty bad look when a franchise needing offensive spark in their lineup finally finds it from a guy who actually wants to be here only to be bought out four years later.
As I mentioned earlier, there’s a chance all of this is headed for a major trade/acquisition where the Nashville Predators land a major young star (Alex Debrincat, for example). But wouldn’t it have been nice if that star could arrive with a 14-year veteran in the locker room to help the transition? And one who can still light the lamp every night?
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