Let’s face it.
Detroit, with just 25 points on the season, is in full tank mode this year and as we near the halfway point of the season, they’ve created a pretty wide gap between themselves and the second worst team: Ottawa, with 37 points. Since the NHL Draft operates on a lottery system, the last place Red Wings will have more straws in the hat than any other team to win the first pick of the 2020 NHL Draft, which will presumably be the QMJHL’s Alexis LaFreniere.
However, that doesn’t necessarily mean Detroit is a dead lock to draft arguably the most coveted prospect since Connor McDavid in 2015. If the draft were to happen today, Detroit would have the best odds- about 18.5 percent- to pick first. Ottawa would have the second best odds at about 13.5 percent, New Jersey would be next with an 11.5 percent chance, and so forth.
As we’ve seen in recent drafts, though, even the three worst teams at the end of the season could still fail to obtain a top three draft pick. Chicago finished 12th from the bottom last year and managed to draft Kirby Dach at #3 overall. The year before that, Carolina finished 11th from the bottom and snatched up Andrei Svechnikov at #2 overall. In 2017, Philadelphia finished almost right in the middle of the league and drafted Nolan Patrick at #2 overall. You get the gist.
With all that being said, let’s examine how LaFreniere would fit into each system of all the current bottom five NHL teams.
DETROIT
Embed from Getty ImagesLaFreniere in Detroit would make a whole lot of sense for the franchise. The left winger would really only have to compete with Tyler Bertuzzi for a spot on the first forward line. Bertuzzi is currently the Red Wings’ highest scoring player; he has 15 goals and 32 points in total over 44 games played. Bertuzzi is, however, in the last year of his two-year contract with the Wings and could conceivably defect to a far less horrendous team. Justin Abdelkader hasn’t played a full season since 2015-16 and dropped off sharply last year, only recording 19 points in 71 games. 23-year old Taro Hirose is a promising up-and-comer at left wing. He played in just 10 games with Detroit last year and notched seven points. Hirose has the same number of points in 23 games so far this season, but isn’t averaging a whole lot of ice time either.
LaFreniere has demonstrated adept skill when sharing the puck; his linemates in Rimouski, Cedric Pare (67 points) and Dmitry Zavgorodniy (43- he has missed time due to injury), both have an outstanding number of points, coming in close behind the QMJHL’s highest scoring player- LaFreniere (70). A guy who prolifically creates offense is just who the Red Wings need come next season. Detroit ranks last in Goals-For (96) and first in Goals-Against (167).
OTTAWA
Embed from Getty ImagesThe fact of the matter is that LaFreniere is going to slot in right off the bat, no matter where he ends up. That being said, Ottawa- based on Ottawa standards- is actually a little stacked at the left wing position. 20-year old Brady Tkachuk is their current first line left winger with 13 goals and 24 points and is averaging the third-highest average time on ice of all Ottawa forwards. The Senators’ most productive player so far this year is their second line LW: Anthony Duclair. Duclair is having a massive year for himself; his 32 points are rapidly approaching his career high of 44, and he’s already surpassed his career record for goals in a single season. Duclair only signed a 1-year deal with the Senators, but given his newfound success with the franchise, he’ll likely re-up for another couple years. LaFreniere’s last realistic competitor would be Tyler Ennis, who is tied with Tkachuk at 24 points on the season. Ennis isn’t putting up spectacular stats this season and only signed for one year and $800,000 with Ottawa. If he stays, he’ll probably settle for roughly the same amount but have to agree to less playing time if the team can get LaFreniere.
The Senators only rank 24th in Goals-For this season with 118, but their power play is dead last in the league and they’re putting the fifth-least shots on goal. LaFreniere’s ability to dominate the puck and keep offense going in his direction would undoubtedly help Ottawa, but the issue is that the team doesn’t have a whole lot going for them at the center or right wing positions. If they nab LaFreniere, they’re going to have to give him forwards to score with.
NEW JERSEY
Embed from Getty ImagesThe Devils have received two first-overall picks in the last three years and still are certifiably terrible. Their whole trading/signing/drafting scheme in the offseason to leverage themselves into the playoffs clearly is not panning out as they imagined. New Jersey has the third-least Goals-For in the league (110), they have allowed the third-most goals (150), and they have the second-worst power play (14.77 percent conversion rate). They traded Taylor Hall last month, which has essentially left a bare-bones forward amalgam to clean up at left wing. Jesper Bratt is currently their first-line left winger, and has a paltry 15 points on the season with a -5 rating. Bratt is a young guy with a decent amount of potential, but will be a restricted free agent by July. Due to his youth, the Devils will probably try and hang onto him, especially if they can put another young buck in LaFreniere ahead of him in the lineup. Blake Coleman is New Jersey’s highest scoring left wing this season, and he’s on pace to have a career-record year for himself with 22 points and a rare (in Devils terms) +1 rating in 43 games. Coleman is signed through next season, and unless Ray Shero moves him, he’ll likely join Bratt in floating to whichever line LaFreniere is not. If they get LaFreniere, I can see the Devils moving Miles Wood. Wood has never been a reliably productive forward; in four NHL seasons, he has collected just 85 points while also recording a -55 career on-ice rating. At 24, he’s still young enough to incentivize other teams to buying into a transformation project. Plus, it’d be nice to shed Wood’s $2.75 million per-year cap hit.
Even after taking Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier first overall just two years apart, I’m sure the Devils would still jump at the opportunity to snag another #1 pick in June. LaFreniere is an offensive firestorm, and a team that has the second-worst PP and third-least Goals For in the league could benefit greatly by adding him.
ANAHEIM
Embed from Getty ImagesBased on their compared statistics, Anaheim and New Jersey are strolling hand-in-hand with each other this season. Anaheim’s 15 percent power play conversion rate is just above New Jersey’s 14.77 percent, and the Ducks- with 109- have just a single goal disadvantage under the Devils (who have 110) in the Goals-For category. The Ducks’ offense steeply decreased after the 2017-18 season, going from a respectable 231 GF to a last-place 196 the following year. This season isn’t showing much improvement so far, either. That being said, Anaheim has two incredibly solid left wingers in Adam Henrique and Jakob Silfverberg quarterbacking a significant portion of their weak offense. However, the almost-30-year old Henrique hasn’t touched his regular season points record of 51 since he achieved it at age 21. Not to mention, Henrique comes at a heavy price of $5.825 million per year. Silfverberg is a versatile forward who won’t be leaving Anaheim anytime soon. Though injured at the moment, Silfverberg is the second-highest scoring player for the Ducks with 28 points and a team-high 2.4 Offensive Point shares. Silfverberg is an asset that can complement LaFreniere’s skill very well.
If LaFreniere goes to Anaheim, Max Jones and Nicolas Deslauriers are easy bumps off the lineup. If he winds up on a line with Rickard Rakell, the pair could wreak havoc on defenses around the league. Even on a struggling offense, Rakell has already notched 25 points in 38 games played. The Ducks need offense, and LaFreniere would be a giant leap in the right direction.
LOS ANGELES
Embed from Getty ImagesA couple miles north on Interstate 5, you’ll find a team muddled in paradox. With the third-most shots in the league, the Kings should be scoring more goals than a 25th-ranked 118, right? Nope! They’re also the fifth-worst overall team in the NHL. Not that shot quantities tell a whole story, but I’m sure it’s frustrating to keep pounding the net with few results. Los Angeles would be a great place for LaFreniere to land, primarily because their left wing situation is so poor. The top forward line of Anze Kopitar (40 points), Alex Iafallo (26), and Tyler Toffoli (27) have produced enough points to put a large cushion between them and the next forward line- which is great for them, but doesn’t leave a lot of offensive hope for the roughly 40 minutes none of them are on the ice. Outside of Iafallo, LaFreniere’s closest competition will be Adrian Kempe, who just signed on for three more years in L.A. in September. I use the word “competition” very light when talking about Kempe; Kempe’s single season record for points is just 37, and this year he has just 19 points in 45 games. LaFreniere should have very limited issues skating on a top L.A. line his first season.
The Kings have the shots, but obviously not the accuracy. LaFreniere is a pass-first guy, but knows how to put opposing goalies in visibility blinds so as to open up wider shooting lanes for his teammates. The Kings could conceivably be the most improved NHL team by 2021 if LaFreniere becomes theirs.
