If you’ve ever played a sport at any level, I’m willing to bet that you’ve heard the phrase, “big players play big in big games”. The meaning being that real stars show up and play like stars when it matters most. This thought has given birth to one of my favorite cliches in hockey, “He scores big goals”.
The idea that some players are more likely to score goals in clutch situations than not is utterly ridiculous in my opinion. People will point to Bryan Bickell and Sean Bergenheim as players who stepped up in the playoffs, but how long did that last? Was Bickell the reason those goals were scored, or was it Patrick Kane doing all the leg work?
The point of this article is to possibly dispel certain notions we have about the Nashville Predators. We might think that one player is more clutch than another, but the stats can be surprising. At the very least, they surprised me.
To do this, we’ll look at points in the “per 60 minutes played” format in an attempt to level the playing field for players who have been injured, as well as just total points. It’s not fair to label Viktor Arvidsson as a “less clutch” player just because he missed 20 games.
In an effort to spread the data out and read between the lines, we’ll discuss situations where the Predators are down by a goal and tied. All stats are good as of Tuesday, January 16th.
Down One In All Situations
Despite being one of the most winningest teams in the West, the Predators have spent a fair amount of time down by a goal. Their 520 minutes is ranked 21st fewest in the NHL, although the stat doesn’t really mean much as the Conference leading Calgary Flames technically rank last in fewest minutes played when trailing by a goal.
With that in mind, let’s talk about who’s tying the game up for the Predators in all situations. The fan-base’s favorite whipping boy, Kevin Fiala, actually leads in terms of points per 60. He’s first in primary assists with 1.65, first in total assists with 2.48, and is sixth for goals with 1.24.
Viktor Arvidsson leads in terms of goals, but that’s in line with his stats so far this season. Shooters shoot, and calling Arvidsson anything besides a shooter would just be plain wrong. The next closest player in terms of total assists in Roman Josi, who creates 2.06 per 60.
What’s most surprising in my opinion was who came in second for points, Calle Jarnkrok. Jarnkrok has had a disappointing season so far, but six of his 16 points have come when trailing by one, making him an opportunistic scorer. In terms of pure points, not points per 60, Josi actually leads with 10 when trailing by a single tally, although he’s played about 50 more minutes than the most played forward, which explains why his points per 60 is lower than Fiala.
Down One At Five On Five
When we change the situation to only reflect minutes where the Predators are down by a goal in five on five situations, the results don’t really change. Fiala and Josi both lead in terms of points with eight, though seven of Fiala’s eight are primary whereas only four of Josi’s eight come from a goal or primary assist.
These same results are echoed when we look at per 60 stats, as Fiala and Josi are ranked first and second, respectively. The main difference between five on five and all situations is that Fiala moves from sixth to third for goals per 60, but still trails Arvidsson and Yannick Weber, of all people. Otherwise, Fiala still dominates primary assists per 60, but Kyle Turris isn’t too far behind.
Tied In All Situations
Before we get into the weeds, let’s remember something. The game starts off as a tie, so the point totals will be larger as will the sample size. I say this only because I was shocked at the difference in scoring before I remembered this, and subsequently felt stupid.
When tied at all strengths, Fiala is still a monster and stays top five in most categories, but a few other players step up in a big way. Mattias Ekholm leads the club with 18 total points and is distantly followed by Ryan Johansen and Fiala, who both have 11. Craig Smith and Filip Forsberg are tied for first in terms of goals with five, but Ekholm, Fiala, and Ryan Hartman are on their tails with four.
As we move on to primary points, Ekholm leads with 10, and also leads in primary assists with six. Johansen, Fiala, Turris, Nick Bonino, and P.K. Subban sit tied for second with four.
As we move back towards per 60 stats, the results don’t really change. Ekholm doesn’t lead in any one stat, but is so good that he leads in terms of total points per 60 with 3.08.
Filip Forsberg leads in goals per 60 with 1.57, but is actually tied with Frederick Gaudreau!!! If you want to talk about stats that come out of nowhere, this might be the biggest one. This mostly has to do with how little ice time Gaudreau gets and how many games Forsberg missed, so we’ll move on. Craig Smith technically comes in second with 1.31 goals, but is closely followed by Arvidsson with 1.25.
Tied at Five on Five
Ekhom remains dominant in this category, though the canyons among the numbers shrink. The surly Swede leads with 12 points, but is followed by Johansen with nine and Fiala with eight. Otherwise, eight players on the Predators have at least four points while tied.
Smith and Hartman are tied for first with four goals, but are closely followed by Fiala, Forsberg, Gaudreau, and Arvidsson. Ekholm, Johansen, and Fiala also occupy first place with four primary assists, although Ekholm adds a team leading six secondary assists. Fiala leads the club in primary points with seven, but Ekholm (six) and Johansen (five) are close behind.
The per 60 stats once again tell a relatively similar story to the normal numbers, although it’s still very weird to see Gaudreau in first place with 1.61 goals per 60. Arvidsson follows with 1.55 while Smith comes in third with 1.29.
Turris leads in terms of primary assists with 1.43, but Fiala and Forsberg are only lagging .21 assists behind. Fourth place is then filled by Subban with 1.11.
Despite not leading any categories, Subban actually has the most points per 60 when tied. It’s fitting that the best player on the team is producing the most when the stakes are highest.
Why Does This Matter?
This is going to sound weird, but I wrote this out of spite. I’ve heard so many people discredit Subban and Fiala and others by saying they only score garbage time points. The argument that Fiala doesn’t show up when the Predators need him most is ignorant and wholeheartedly untrue. To make sure it resonated with the group of people I’m aiming to convince, I even stayed away from advanced stats!
With that seal broken, let’s take a very quick look at those numbers. When tied, Fiala has created the most scoring chances (36) and second most high danger chances (14) behind Smith (16) at five on five. Fiala may turn the puck over at inopportune times, but that’s because he’s forced to carry the puck in as often as he does. If he doesn’t enter the zone and create a play, these high danger chances don’t happen.
I don’t actually believe that some players are more clutch than others, I just believe that some players have more skills and sometimes luck strikes. Every once in a while, some player will go on a hot streak when it matters most, and that’ll affect our perception of them forever. What’s funny, in my opinion, is how the opposite happened with Fiala. He went on a terrible cold streak to start the year, and now people won’t acknowledge how good he’s playing.
As some of you might know, I posted a twitter poll on Tuesday. The question being: who scores the most points per 60 minutes when trailing by a single goal? I gave four options, Josi, Johansen, Forsberg, and Fiala. 52% of the 395 voters chose Forsberg, but as you now know, Fiala actually led by a confortable margin.
Without looking, who would you say scores the most points per 60 in all strengths when trailing by a goal? Leave a comment if you don’t think any of the four are the leader.
— George Matarangas (@GeorgeM1019) January 15, 2019
Despite his supremacy, Fiala finished last with 11% of the total votes. This exercise might seem a little contrived or arbitrarily created, but I swear I did this for a reason. I wrote this because I wanted to examine my own biases and pre-conceptions as well as help the fanbase face their own. Fans are obviously down on Fiala, but there’s little reason to be. He’s playing very well and is easily the fourth best forward on the team. So let’s make sure to take a sober look at the data every once in a while so that we can re-evaluate and treat players fairly.
Also, the other takeaway is, if you need a goal, throw Fiala, Forsberg, Arvidsson, Johansen, Josi, or Subban out there.
